If you’ve noticed your morning coffee is costing a little more lately, you’re not alone. Coffee prices are climbing worldwide, and we’re here to break down why—and what it means for your daily brew.
Before we dive in, let’s talk about an important factor behind rising coffee prices: the C price. This is the global benchmark for coffee trading, set and traded in USD per pound on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). It determines the base price farmers receive for their coffee and plays a crucial role in how costs fluctuate worldwide. Because coffee is traded in USD, currency exchange rates also impact how much different countries, including Australia, pay for green beans.
With this in mind, let’s take a closer look at the climate of the coffee market today.
So, What’s Going On?
Green bean prices have recently climbed past USD 4 per pound – a record high that’s reshaping the industry – and are now hovering between 3.40 - 3.90 per pound. Historically, the C price has typically ranged between USD 1.00 and 1.50 per pound, showing just how significant this recent spike is.
C-Price over the past 10 years, showing closing price in USD per pound
In 2022, we saw the first notable increase in over ten years, with prices sitting between USD 2.00 and 2.40 per pound for most of the year. After a short reprieve in 2023, the C price began rising again steadily in 2024, peaking at 2.74 in September and barrelling past 3.00 by late November. Ongoing issues (which we’ll get into below) have since pushed it far beyond that threshold, with new record highs being set in 2025.
C-Price since August 2024, showing closing price in USD per pound
While coffee prices have always fluctuated, this surge is unlike anything we’ve seen before, with little chance that prices return to their familiar, historical range. In fact, some market analysts predict it could rise even further depending on upcoming harvest yields and global economic conditions.
It's important to note that the C price is specifically for commodity arabica coffee. When it comes to specialty coffee, the impact is even greater, as these high-quality beans naturally, and rightfully, command a higher price. Specialty coffee is usually purchased at prices well above the C price, with some rare microlots exceeding USD 20 per pound, further intensifying the cost pressures for roasters committed to quality with specialty-grade beans.
What’s Driving This Price Increase?
Several key factors are contributing to these record-breaking highs.
Climate Changes & Poor Harvests
Major coffee-producing countries like Brazil and Vietnam have faced extreme weather conditions in recent years, from droughts to heavy rains, leading to poorer bean quality and smaller yields. There are heaps of individual points, statistics and stories we can point to, but for the sake of time, we’ll share one example, using Brazil to help paint the picture.
Back in 2021, Brazil – the largest global coffee-producer – was rocked by severe frosts early in the growing season. Their yields have ebbed and flowed since, but each year has seen a relatively small harvest, and current reports for the 2025 see that trend continuing. At face value, this may not seem concerning, but when you take into account compounded low yields with a rise in global demand (more on that soon), you’re left with some shocking statistics. Brazilian consultancy groups are estimating that only 8-12% of the 2024 crop remained as of early March, with a third of the year left to go.
Rising Global Demand
As coffee consumption grows, especially in markets like China with a strong tea-drinking history, we’re introduced to a supply and demand perfect storm. In fact, it’s believed that, yet again, coffee loving legends like you will enjoy more coffee than is globally produced in 2025. If true, it’ll be the fourth time in the past six years.
In the emerging coffee market of China, coffee consumption has increased an average of 21% year on year since the 2010/11 coffee year. And in the United States, still the top consumer of coffee globally, numbers are up nearly 40% from 2004. Amongst this growth, we’re seeing a rising preference for specialty coffee. Whilst this growth is generally a positive trend, in the current environment, it also further intensifies supply pressures, making high-quality beans even more competitive to source.
Higher Production & Freight Costs
Just as you may experience a rise in energy costs at home or increased shipping costs at the post, so too has the coffee industry. Freight costs for green bean coffee has been on the rise along with energy costs for processing and roasting. These expenses add compounding pressure across the supply chain, from farms to roasters.
Currency Exchange Rates
As mentioned previously, coffee is traded and purchased in USD, and with the AUD sitting lower than usual, it costs Australian roasters more to purchase the same amount of coffee.
At the time of publishing this article, the dollar hasn’t gone above .64 since the start of the year – historically, the average is close to .75 – making coffee imports significantly more expensive for Aussie businesses.
What Does This Mean for Specialty Coffee?
With rising costs across the board, roasters are at a crossroads: either cut costs (which often means compromising on quality) or stay committed to high standards and adjust pricing to reflect the true value of specialty coffee. For us at Will & Co, we’re choosing the latter, staying committed to sourcing the best specialty coffee and supporting the long-term sustainability of the industry.
We know that price increases aren’t something anyone welcomes, especially when the cost of living is already high. But there are some other considerations related to these changes.
Fairer Pricing in Cafes
If you travel to other global cities like London, New York, Singapore or Dubai, you’ll quickly learn that Aussies enjoy the highest-quality specialty coffee, and for a bargain price. Bringing Australian coffee prices more in line with global benchmarks is important for our beloved cafe culture.
Fairer Wages for Farmers
With higher coffee prices, some farmers are seeing more sustainable earnings, making coffee farming a more viable and attractive career. This not only supports their livelihoods now, it also helps ensure future generations see coffee growing as a stable and rewarding profession. We share this point with an important disclaimer that, without better weather conditions or innovation to build weather-resilient solutions to farming, higher prices don’t automatically equate to fairer wages.
Clearer Distinction Between Specialty and Commodity Coffee
The widening gap between commodity and specialty coffee means that high-quality beans will continue to stand out for their superior taste and sustainability. Consumers who value these factors will have even more reason to support specialty coffee roasters and cafes that prioritise quality over cost-cutting.
How Does This Impact Me?
If you haven't already, you’ll likely see increases in coffee prices at your local café and for retail coffee at home. At Will & Co, we’re reviewing and adjusting our pricing where needed - from our HQ tasting bar to our online store - to reflect these changes while staying committed to quality.
The good news? We'll continue to honour our subscriber discount of 30% OFF for the life of your subscription. This means you can still enjoy our specialty brews at a more affordable price, even as costs rise across the industry.
Thanks to You
As coffee lovers, we know that coffee is more than just a drink – it’s a daily ritual, a sense of comfort and an integral part of building community. That’s why we promise to keep doing what we do best: sourcing and roasting top-tier beans.
While we don’t have a crystal ball, we do have hope that the future of specialty coffee is strong and gratitude for all the legends joining forces to support it. That includes you. Thank you for supporting specialty coffee culture, your local cafes and the hardworking folks behind every cup. Your love for a great cuppa helps sustain an industry that thrives on quality, ethics and passion—now and into the future. Cheers to that.
